History matching for exploring and reducing climate model parameter space using observations and a large perturbed physics ensemble     

Daniel Williamson  Michael Goldstein  Lesley Allison  Adam Blaker  Peter Challenor  Laura Jackson  Kuniko Yamazaki 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):1703-1729

We apply an established statistical methodology called history matching to constrain the parameter space of a coupled non-flux-adjusted climate model (the third Hadley Centre Climate Model; HadCM3) by using a 10,000-member perturbed physics ensemble and observational metrics. History matching uses emulators (fast statistical representations of climate models that include a measure of uncertainty in the prediction of climate model output) to rule out regions of the parameter space of the climate model that are inconsistent with physical observations given the relevant uncertainties. Our methods rule out about half of the parameter space of the climate model even though we only use a small number of historical observations. We explore 2 dimensional projections of the remaining space and observe a region whose shape mainly depends on parameters controlling cloud processes and one ocean mixing parameter. We find that global mean surface air temperature (SAT) is the dominant constraint of those used, and that the others provide little further constraint after matching to SAT. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has a non linear relationship with SAT and is not a good proxy for the meridional heat transport in the unconstrained parameter space, but these relationships are linear in our reduced space. We find that the transient response of the AMOC to idealised CO₂ forcing at 1 and 2 % per year shows a greater average reduction in strength in the constrained parameter space than in the unconstrained space. We test extended ranges of a number of parameters of HadCM3 and discover that no part of the extended ranges can by ruled out using any of our constraints. Constraining parameter space using easy to emulate observational metrics prior to analysis of more complex processes is an important and powerful tool. It can remove complex and irrelevant behaviour in unrealistic parts of parameter space, allowing the processes in question to be more easily studied or emulated, perhaps as a precursor to the application of further relevant constraints.  相似文献   

The spatial and temporal distributions of spheroidal carbonaceous particles from sediment core samples from industrial cities in Japan and China     

Eri Hirakawa  Akiko Murakami-Kitase  Takamoto Okudaira  Jun Inoue  Hideo Yamazaki  Shusaku Yoshikawa 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,64(3):833-840

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) are produced by the high-temperature combustion of fossil fuels and emitted in to the atmosphere. The distribution and concentration of SCPs in sediments have been used as a proxy for the distribution of pollutants emitted to the atmosphere. However, the effect on the distribution of SCPs due to industrial activity at nearby industrial cities is yet to be quantified. To clarify the origin of SCPs of ~20 μm in size that are preserved in sediments, we evaluated the abundance, surface morphology, and chemical composition of SCPs in sediment core samples recovered from industrial cities in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagasaki) and China (Beijing), with the cities being located at least ~500 km away from each other. Vertical profiles of SCP concentration in sediment cores from the Japanese cities and Beijing are different, reflecting the contrasting industrial histories of the two countries. The SCPs from different cities show contrasting morphological and chemical characteristics, suggesting that ~20 μm SCPs in sediments from the industrial cities could represent the local combustion history in detail, as the influx of local SCPs is dominant at such sites.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic properties of Cr-doped and Cr,Li-doped synthetic forsterite crystals     

Akiko Sugimoto  Yukio Nobe  Takafumi Yamazaki  Yasuhide Yamaguchi  Kiyoshi Yamagishi  Yusaburo Segawa  Humihiko Takei 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1997,24(5):333-339

Cr-droped and Cr,Li-doped forsterite crystals were grown and their optical properties were investigated. It was shown that when only Cr is doped, Cr³⁺ is substituted at the site of low crystal field, and the energy level ²E lie above the ⁴T₂ level, while ⁴T₂ is just above ²E when Cr and Li are codoped. The difference was rationalized by a deformation of the Cr substituted site with the introduction of Li.  相似文献   

Compressibility of strontium orthophosphate Sr<Subscript>3</Subscript>(PO<Subscript>4</Subscript>)<Subscript>2</Subscript> at high pressure     

Shuangmeng Zhai  Weihong Xue  Daisuke Yamazaki  Shuangming Shan  Eiji Ito  Naotaka Tomioka  Akira Shimojuku  Ken-ichi Funakoshi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2011,38(5):357-361

High pressure in situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction experiment of strontium orthophosphate Sr₃(PO₄)₂ has been carried out to 20.0 GPa at room temperature using multianvil apparatus. Fitting a third-order Birch–Murnaghan equation of state to the P–V data yields a volume of V ₀ = 498.0 ± 0.1 Å³, an isothermal bulk modulus of K _T  = 89.5 ± 1.7 GPa, and first pressure derivative of K _T ′ = 6.57 ± 0.34. If K _T ′ is fixed at 4, K _T is obtained as 104.4 ± 1.2 GPa. Analysis of axial compressible modulus shows that the a-axis (K _a  = 79.6 ± 3.2 GPa) is more compressible than the c-axis (K _c  = 116.4 ± 4.3 GPa). Based on the high pressure Raman spectroscopic results, the mode Grüneisen parameters are determined and the average mode Grüneisen parameter of PO₄ vibrations of Sr₃(PO₄)₂ is calculated to be 0.30(2).  相似文献   

The upper-level circulation anomaly over Central Asia and its relationship to the Asian monsoon and mid-latitude wave train in early summer     

Takeshi Watanabe  Koji Yamazaki 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(9-10):2477-2489

A large intraseasonal variation in geopotential height over the Central Asia region, where the Asian subtropical jet is located, occurs between May and June, and the most dominant variation has a wave-like distribution. This variation in geopotential height influences precipitation across South and Southeast Asia. In this paper, we use composite analysis to determine the causes of this intraseasonal variation over Central Asia. The wave train propagates from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia over a period of a week, and generates an anomaly in geopotential height over the region. The tropical disturbance, which is similar to the Madden–Julian oscillation, appears a few days before the maximum of the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia, and is accompanied by active convection over the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection over Central America. Results of numerical experiments using a linear baroclinic model show that the active convection over the northern Indian Ocean causes the anticyclonic anomaly over Central Asia. The wave train that extends from the northern Atlantic Ocean to Central Asia is generated by negative thermal forcing over Central America, and the phase distribution of this wave train is similar to that observed in the composite analysis. Central Asia is the region where the effects of the tropics and middle latitudes overlap, and it is an important connection point between the Asian monsoon and middle latitudes.  相似文献   

高岭土一维增湿的湿陷-流变分析方法研究     

邓检良  许强  龙冈文夫 《岩土力学》2013,34(10):2857-2862

塑性单元体与黏性单元体并联之后再与弹性单元体串联即构成三要素模型,其各单元体都具有非线性本构关系。通过考虑增湿过程中饱和度对三要素模型中的黏性单元体和塑性单元体的影响,建立了弹-塑-黏性与湿陷性耦合的湿陷流变本构模型。湿陷对塑性单元体的影响表现为应变不变条件下屈服应力的降低;而对黏性单元体的影响表现为速率敏感系数的升高。两种影响可以通过试验确定。以此模型为基础,分析了高岭土的单轴压缩固结试验中的湿陷-流变变形,提出了一种湿陷-流变分析方法。试验中,在干燥条件下观测了蠕变;在增湿过程中观测了湿陷。试验中对含水量的测量精度高。理论所得含水率-应变-时间关系与实测结果接近,并区分了增湿过程中的湿陷和干燥条件下的蠕变,证明了本方法的有效性。  相似文献   

Modeling Jupiter's cloud bands and decks: 2. Distribution and motion of condensates     

L.C. Zuchowski  Y.H. Yamazaki  P.L. Read 《Icarus》2009,200(2):563-573

A simple jovian cloud scheme has been developed for the Oxford Planetary Unified model System (OPUS). NH₃-ice, NH₄SH-solid, H₂O-ice and H₂O-liquid clouds have been modeled in Southern hemisphere limited area simulations of Jupiter. We found that either three or four of the condensates existed in the model. For a deep atmospheric water abundance close to solar composition, an NH₃-ice deck above 0.7 bar, an NH₄SH-solid deck above 2.5 bar and a H₂O-liquid deck with a base at about 7.5 bar and frozen cloud tops formed. If a depleted deep water abundance is assumed, however, a very compact cloud structure develops, where an H₂O-ice cloud forms by direct sublimation above 3 bar. The condensates constitute good tracers of atmospheric motion, and we have confirmed that zonal velocities determined from manual feature tracking in the modeled cloud layers agree reasonably well with the modeled zonal velocities. Dense and elevated clouds form over latitudes with strong atmospheric upwelling and depleted clouds exist over areas with strong downwelling. In the NH₃-ice deck this leads to elevated cloud bands over the zones in the domain and thin clouds over the belts, which is consistent with the observationally deduced distribution. Due to changes in the vertical velocity pattern in the deeper atmosphere, the NH₄SH-solid and water cloud decks are more uniform. This modeled cloud structure thus includes the possibility of more frequent water cloud observations in belts, as this deeper deck could be more easily detected under areas with thin NH₃-ice clouds. Large scale vortices appeared spontaneously in the model and were characterized by elevated NH₃-ice clouds, as expected from observations. These eddies leave the most discernible imprint on the lighter condensate particles of the uppermost layer.  相似文献   

Monitoring and evaluation of the urban reconstruction process in Bam,Iran, after the 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 earthquake     

S. Omid Hashemi-Parast  Fumio Yamazaki  Wen Liu 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(1):197-213

In this study, we tracked and analyzed the reconstruction process in Bam, Iran, after the city was struck by an earthquake with a M _w of 6.6 on December 26, 2003. We adopted three approaches to comprehensively assess the city’s post-earthquake reconstruction and to shed light on the progress and sustainability of disaster recovery projects. We applied the following methodology. First, we obtained official statistics and reports that included quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the reconstruction process to evaluate the overall outcome of the government’s reconstruction projects. Second, we examined photographs taken during field surveys conducted in 2004, 2007, and 2014 to assess changes within the city. Last, we analyzed three satellite images of Bam—the first taken 3 months before the earthquake, the second immediately after the earthquake, and the third 8 years after the earthquake—to assess the progress of reconstruction work and changes in land cover and land use. The results indicated that considerable progress had been made in reconstructing some of the damaged areas. However, progress was relatively slow in severely damaged areas.  相似文献   

Short-Term Response of a Downstream Marine System to the Partial Opening of a Tidal-River Causeway     

Travis G. Gerwing  Diana J. Hamilton  Myriam A. Barbeau  Katy Haralampides  Gordon Yamazaki 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):717-725

The spillway gates of the Petitcodiac Causeway, a hydraulic structure ~35 km upstream of the mouth of the Petitcodiac River in New Brunswick, Canada, were permanently opened in April 2010. The short-term effect opening the spillway gates had on downstream intertidal mudflats of the upper Bay of Fundy was investigated. Specifically, a multivariate before-after-control-impact design was used to determine if opening the spillway gates affected the invertebrate community (crustaceans, polychaetes, and molluscs), abiotic sediment conditions (sediment water content, mean particle size, penetrability, and depth of the apparent redox potential discontinuity), or resource availability (sediment chlorophyll a concentration and organic matter content) of five intertidal mudflats (two impacted sites, three reference sites) spanning Chignecto Bay, the northern arm of the upper Bay of Fundy, up to 5 months post-opening. No biologically or statistically meaningful differences were detected between impacted and reference sites for any of the measured variables. This suggests that opening the causeway did not have a quantifiable impact on these intertidal mudflats, at least within half a year of the opening. This is likely a result of the macrotidal nature of the Bay of Fundy that overwhelmed any immediate changes to hydrodynamics that occurred after the opening of the causeway gates.  相似文献   

The micrometeoroids in the thermosphere and mesosphere     

Fumio Kamijo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1991,181(1):147-152

This Letter reviews the results by computer simulations on the three-body problem carried out at Leningrad University Astronomical Observatory (Anosova, 1986, 1988, 1989). The intensive systematic studies of triple systems with negative and positive total energies have yielded the general features of the evolution of these systems. The processes of formation of the wide and hard binaries have been studied in details. The scenario of the general class of the final motions of the triple systems with negative total energy is considered, the necessary conditions of disruption of these systems are formulated.  相似文献